Big Sky Goes Bye Bye

For a team that ended its season a month and a half ago, the Thunderbirds have been awfully busy lately.  It goes back to winning the draft lottery in late March, then choosing Matthew Barzal with the #1 overall pick last week along with making nine other selections.  Then came the news Tuesday that the T-birds had acquired 20 year old goalie Brandon Glover in a trade with Calgary, sending a third round bantam pick in next year's draft to the Hitmen.

The wheeling and dealing didn't stop there though.  Wednesday the 'Birds sent 19 year old Jacob Doty to Medicine Hat in exchange for 17 year old left winger Riley Sheen.  Doty, the Billings, Montana native, was a crowd favorite at the ShoWare Center for his willingness to drop the gloves and stick up for his teammates.  

Jacob Doty

The team press release seemed to indicate Doty may have requested a trade, or it might have been a mutual parting of the ways.  I think the reality is Doty probably saw the writing on the wall.  Jacob was healthy all of last season, but far too often that meant he was a healthy scratch.  That's not a good sign for an 18 year old and it was probably a situation that wasn't going to change much if he remained with the club as a 19 year old.

The one thing Medicine Hat will get in Jacob is a hard worker who wants to improve his game. Doty never gave less then 100 percent with Seattle.  He worked hard last offseason to improve his skating, going so far as to spend his summer in Minnesota where he could find more ice time then he could in Billings.  The problem is, for all the hard work, the skating never got dramatically better. 

This move has the Steve Konowalchuk stamp all over it.  Coach K puts a premium on skating.  From all indications Sheen has good skating speed. He's much smaller then Doty but probably has a higher offensive ceiling and the T-birds need to find ways to generate more offense.  This goes back to something I blogged earlier this spring; Konowalchuk need to be able to get his type of players to fit into his system.  Doty just wasn't a fit.  We'll see if Sheen is a fit. 

Riley Sheen

This move certainly makes the group of forwards younger...getting almost as young as the group of defensemen.   It will be interesting to see how this sways the team's thinking when it comes to filling the last two 20 year old roster spots.  At the very least I think we will see the T-birds try to acquire an 18 or 19 year old high-scoring forward type in the CHL Import Draft in late June. 

The Glover-ed One

Seattle gets some clarity in the goaltending situation...or did they?  GM Russ Farwell sends a 2013 third round Bantam Pick to Calgary in exchange for 20 year old goalie Brandon Glover.  Glover has never been the outright #1 goalie in his WHL career (split between Calgary and Moose Jaw), but when he has played he's put up decent numbers.  He also put up very good numbers in the 2012 playoffs for the Hitmen. 

I actually recall a game a few years ago when Glover (great name for a goalie by the way!) was a with Moose Jaw and played very well against the T-birds at the Crushed Can.  At the time I thought he was going to be the future in net for the Warriors.  Not sure why that didn' work out but let's hope it works out well with the 'Birds. 

You don't give up a 3rd round pick for a 20 year old netminder to be anything but the #1 guy.  The question now becomes who backs up Glover?  Daniel Cotton spent all of last season as the back-up to Calvin Pickard.  He saw limited playing time but is still relatively young, heading into his 18 year old season.  Seattle recently signed Danny Mumaugh, a 16 year old out of Colorado and indications seemed to be he is expected to be with the team next year. 

Justin Myles was a 5th round bantam selection two years ago who had a solid camp last fall.  Does he still figure in the team's plans?  What about Nolan Kruizenga who was drafted in the spring of 2011 or Brad Regabliati was was listed last year by the club? 

Meanwhile the T-birds expended a 3rd round pick earlier this month on Logan Flodell.  While he won't be with the team this coming season, he will be at camp this August.  Could there be seven goalies at camp? 

Right now the odds seem to favor a Glover/Mumaugh combo but don't be surprised if the team carries three goalies through the first week or so of the regular season.  The good news is that with the trade for Glover Seattle has a veteran netminder who's been through the WHL wars to step in for Pickard.

Bazal Bar none!

Well, it's that time of year again.  Time to try and make heads or tails of the bantam draft.  This year's draft may have garnered a bit more interest from Seattle fans after the Thunderbirds won the draft lottery in late March and gained the first overall pick for the first time in franchise history.



The concensus throughout the winter and early spring was that Matt Barzal of Coquitlam,B.C.  and the Burnaby Winter Club, was the top choice available for selection and that's where T-birds GM Russ Farwell went with the pick.  He certainly put up some big numbers this past season and has been lauded throughout his hockey development for his skill and leadership.  He might be a once-every-four-or-five years type of talent.   I've read in a number of different places where he is compared to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, if not in style then in potential. 

If you haven't had a chance, you should go to the T-birds facebook page and look at the scouting video they posted of Barzal.   The young man has an almost effortless way of playing the game.  He doesn't waste any energy.  He is a smooth skater and he always seems to be at the center of the action.  It really does appear as if he's thinking one step ahead of everyone else on the ice.

As a result Barzal plays like he's bigger and older then the other players he's on the ice with.  But the reality is he's not.  Those other players are the same age (14 to 15 yrs old) and, for the most part, the same size (around 5'7" to 6'0").  The separation in his skill set makes him appear to be a more mature player.  This is why some have suggested he could play in the WHL as a 15 year old and not seem out of place.  This is why Farwell says Barzal will be a top six forward for the Thunderbirds as a 16 year rookie in 2013-14.

The T-birds, of course, had three picks in the top 25 in the draft.  Barzal at the top was a no-brainer.  With their second first round pick (20th overall) obtained from Portland in the Marcel Noebels deal, Seattle selected rigth winger Keegan Kolesar out of Winnipeg.  With their second round choice, 25th overall, the 'Birds went with defenseman Ethan Bear from Saskatchewan.


T-birds 2nd selection Keegan Kolesar


Kolesar is 6'0", 208 lbs.  Bear is 5'11"+ and 198  lbs. That's a pair of sturdy 15 year olds.  Look, I don't know how much stock to put into the scouting services that rank these players.  Those scouts do a lot of grunt work though and they put a lot of time and effort into compiling their lists so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.  I have seen those scouting services list each of the T-birds top three picks as first round talents. 

Seattle's third round selection was goalie Logan Flodell out of Regina.  His numbers from this past season aren't eye-popping but I've read that he didn't play on the most talented team.  Before this past season he was expected to be one of the top bantam goalies in his province so he does come with some expectations that he can play at the WHL level.  I believe this is the highest pick the T-birds have used on a goaltender since choosing Calvin Pickard in the second round of the 2007 draft (38th overall).  None of those lower drafted netminders has yet to play a regular season game for the T-birds. Maybe it was time to draft a goalie with a higher pick.

In the fifth round the T-birds went back to Saskatchewan to draft center Lane Pederson.  With no picks in the 6th or 7th round Seattle made two 8th round selections;  Grenfells, Saskatchewan LW Donovan Neuls and 6'2" Stillwater, Minnesota defenseman Luke Osterman.  Shades of Kevin Wolf?

Neuls' teammate from Saskatchewan, Tyler Kreklewich (he and Neuls both played for the Melville Millionaires) was selected in the 9th round.  This is interesting because Tri-City has had a lot of success the last five years by grabbing players who grew up together or played together in their youth.  The Thunderbirds closed out the draft with two 10th round selections, a pair of  defensemen; Austin Wong from Medicine Hat and Zak Galafanakis....no, wait that's the guy from the "Hangover" movies.....I mean Zak Galambos who has been playing in Detroit but is from Walnut Creek, California (think the Bay Area, just north and east of Oakland).

Again, according to at least one scouting service Galambos was the 6th best U.S. prospect available in the draft and rated as a 4th round talent which is good 'cause the T-birds didn't have a 4th round pick. 

Now usually it's fun to follow the draft but when it's over you know there won't be any immediate impact from these players for at least two years.  Heck, some may never be heard from again after rookie camp in August.  The Barzal pick though, makes this draft a little different.  I would greatly anticipate him being up with the team for a game or two around the holidays and then again sometime next spring, hopefully for a round or two of the playoffs.

Calling T-Bird Nation

I received quite a jolt Saturday afternoon. I was out mowing my lawn and didn't hear my cell phone ring in time to catch the call. I figured if it was important the caller would leave a message. I finished up mowing my lawn, put the mower away, swept off the patio and sidewalk and went inside to check.

Sure enough there was a message. It said the caller was Bruce McDonald. Bruce of course has been working with me on the T-birds broadcasts for the past 11 years. He's been doing the home broadcasts for longer then that and has been associated with the Thunderbirds organization in some fashion since he was a young boy. I figured he probably wanted to catch up since we hadn't spoken since the end of the season, maybe get my thoughts on how the WHL and NHL playoffs were going or even talk a little Mariners baseball or Sounder soccer.

So I went into my voice mail, except it wasn't Bruce's voice on the message. It was his mom, Char. She wanted me to call, it was urgent. Bruce was in the hospital. I knew from the tone of her voice this wasn't going to be good news. I knew from his last Facebook post that Bruce wasn't feeling well lately. I was almost afraid to make the call. But I dialed her up. And the news was not good. Bruce had been diagnosed with leukemia.

What a jolt to hear that. I could only imagine the shock it was for him. My first thought was, why do all the good guys get the bad breaks. And Bruce truly is one of the good guys. He goes out of his way or above and beyond to make everyone feel the best about themselves. He remembers my kids at Christmas and always inquires about my family's well being. He tries to meet the parents of each player when they come to town so he can tell them what a great job they've done raising their son.

  If you know Bruce then you know his cerebral palsy has him confined to a wheelchair or motorized scooter. You wouldn't begrudge him every right to be angry at the world. But he's not. You want to know something funny? Every season we drive down I-5 and back together to Portland, six times, for T-birds/Winterhawks games and Bruce always does the driving. Think about that, the first time I met him I see this guy in a motorized chair and he wants to know if I want to ride down to Portland with him and his mom for the game. I'm thinking to myself, do I sit on the hand rest or his lap? But after five minutes talking with him I had no qualms.  And then after seeing his van I felt even better.  Of couse after that first game down, there was a catch, I had to the driving on the way back.   

And that's the way it was for the first 6-7 seasons together. But here's the pure Bruce move. After my daughter was born and along with my son I had two young kids at home, he must have noticed me being a little more tired then usual. So the last few years he hasn't asked me to drive. He's let me catch a few winks in his van on the way back home.

Sure enough, when I finally got a chance to speak with Bruce at the hospital Sunday evening, he was upbeat, or as upbeat as he could be under the circumstances. I got the impression he was trying to lift my spirits. The one thing Bruce has told me over the years is, that because he's confined to his scooter, he has never had the chance to skate and play the game of hockey that he loves so much. If he ever does gets ticked off at a player it is because he feels they are "dogging it" or giving less then 100 percent, but he'll never mention that on a broadcast. He just doesn't understand how an able-bodied person wouldn't give it their all at every opportunity when he'd do just about anything to have the chance to give it his all just once.   What you have to know is, this is a guy who climbs down out of his scooter and pulls himself up a flight of stairs by his hands and elbows just to get to our broadcast locations down in Portland, then usually laughs about it when he gets to the top.

    Bruce is slated to begin chemotherapy this week (Bruce has a clean shaven head so at least he won't have to worry about losing the hair!). It's basically the first period for him in what could be a tough game. So, what I'm asking from all T-bird fans is that we all become Bruce's teammates and help him win this one. Keep him in your thoughts and prayers. Friend him on Facebook and send your best wishes. He's going to be in the hospital for the next month or so. He's at Evergreen Medical Center Hospital in Kirkland, 12040 NE 128th Street Kirkland, WA 98034, on the oncology floor (6th floor). Because of his treatment, he can't have flowers in his room, but I'm sure he'd love to receive a card or note of encouragement.

It's a Small World

Last summer my family visited my wife's family in Centennial, Colorado, a suburb of Denver. I've been there many times over the past 15-16 years. I like the Denver area. While I'm no Bronco, Avs, Rockies or Nuggets fan I do like the fact they have all the major sports leagues there and have first class facilities. Also, there are lots of things to do and see in Colorado, including Ilitch Garden's an amusement center/water park located right next to the Pepsi Center.

Last summer we visited a dinosaour museum in nearby Parker, Colorado. Little did I know at the time I was literally in the backyard of future T-bird, Seth Swenson. Not sure we'll make the trek to Colorado this summer but if we do it appears another new T-bird is a neighbor of my in-laws. Seattle just signed goalie Danny Mumaugh, a Centennial, Colorado resident. Now, he's probably not living right next door to the in-laws; Centennial is a decent sized community but if he needs a ride back up this way for training camp, maybe we can oblige.

Mumaugh was at camp with the Thunderbirds last year as a free agent invitee. I'm sure he was keeping his college options open and thus went undrafted by the WHL. Seattle obviously liked what they saw from Mumaugh and Mumaugh must have felt comfortable with the WHL route because he's now signed, sealed and delivered. This probably gives Mumaugh a leg up for one of the goalie spots on the roster for next season.

It's somewhat ironic with one T-bird goalie, Calvin Pickard, leaving for (eventually) Colorado, one of his potential replacements come from Colorado. Maybe my family and I should keep visiting the Denver area every summer, if it means bringing back another quality player for the T-birds!

No Looking Back, It's Onward and Upward!

I wanted to wait until after the WHL Draft Lottery to put a wrap on the just concluded 2011-12 season. As I posted earlier, I had a strange intuition that the T-birds were going to win the lottery and, viola, they did! I just needed a little bit of good news after the disappointment of missing out on the WHL playoffs for a third consecutive season. The lottery win was more than a little bit of good news, that was great news.

I truly believe that winning that lottery sweepstakes is the first sign this franchise is coming out of a down cycle. Again, like my premonition about the lottery ,I have a feeling good things are down the road. The lottery win was just a sign though, not the first step. I believe the T-birds took those first steps in recent years with the acquisition of some quality young talent.

Seattle now has a core group of players to build around and that is the next step. For next season that still includes the leadership of a player like Luke Lockhart, and possibly a Brad Deagle, but in reality the leadership focus has already begun to shift to younger players like Brandon Troock, Conner Honey and Shea Theodore.

Meanwhile players like Seth Swenson, Colin Jacobs, Justin Hickman and Evan Wardley must continue their development as well. All will take on bigger roles with this team next year. All flashed signs of great potential but now there needs to be consistency in their play. The motto must be "60 X 72". That's not a math equation, it is a winning formula as in, sixty minutes of hockey in every one of the 72 regular season games next season.

I have no idea what the roster will look like in six months. I think there could be anything from some major overhauling to some minor tweaking. I believe Head Coach Steve Konowalchuk needs the opportunity to build the team with "his guys" though. I think his systems are fine, he just needs the right players to plug in. I'm not saying he gets a mulligan for his first season behind the bench but I think a year of adjusting to the WHL isn't out of the ordinary for a coach coming from a higher level.

Konowalchuk should have a better grasp of the league by the start of camp in August, if he doesn't already. Last year at this time I thought the T-birds could be a close to .500 team in 2011-12. Of course we know now that didn't happen. But I also believed Konowalchuk had to tear this team down, then start to build it back up again and in the end I think it did affect the wins and losses.

One concern going into next season will be the defense and how young it could be...and it will be young. You get the feeling, that after he was named the team's Defenseman of the Year for 2011-12, that 20 year old Brad Deagle has a roster spot going into 2012-13. After that though, they get pretty green on the back end. I could see Mitch Elliot getting every opportunity to make the switch to defense permanent next season as a 19 year old but that's not a guarantee he'll make it. General Manager Russ Farwell could use one of his two Import Draft selections in June on an 18 or 19 year old defenseman, or look to acquire a 19 year old rear guard via trade. Outside of those options the next oldest returning defenseman will be the 18 year old Wardley.

Both Theodore and Jared Hauf saw plenty of ice time as 16 year olds and I expect both to take a big step forward next year. Taylor Green should be here full time but he's an unknown quantity back on the blue line. He played in just three games for the team this past season, all early in the year and played all three up as a forward. Kevin Wolf, the 2011 Bantam pick out of Minnesota will be here as a 16 year old but after that there are still a few spots to be filled. Expect at least one other 17 year old defenseman, if not two, to make the roster out of the trio of Jerret Smith, Zach Douglas and Taylor Mulder. Of course there is always the possibility that some player on the team's radar pops up at camp unexpectedly and grabs one of those roster spots.

There should be a healthy battle at training camp for the two goaltender spots. Obviously Daniel Cotton has a leg up on others as he spent the entire season with the team, backing up Calvin Pickard. At this time I think Cotton is fairly certain to have a roster position next season but I don't think he's guaranteed the number one job. Here's another position where the team could invest one of their Import Draft selections or possibly make a trade. Otherwise expect players like Justin Myles, Danny Mumaugh, Nolan Kruizenga and Brad Rebagliati (and possibly a few others) to try and stake a claim. All those mentioned were at camp with the team last fall.

But believe it or not, even with the uncertainty of the goaltending situation and the expected youth of the blue line corps, the biggest concern for me going forward is the offense. This team mustered only 173 goals this past season. That is an average of just 2.40 per game and at times last year the goals per game average was closer to 2.35. You're just not going to win a lot of games averaging less than two and a half goals per game.

I think, just to be at or near a .500 record next year, the Thunderbirds have to average, at a minimum three goals per game and that's being conservative. Of course they probably have to allow, on average, not more then three goals against per game which means giving up about 80 goals less next season then what they allowed this year...and do it with a younger defense and a goalie not named Calvin Pickard.

Kelowna finished 2011-12 as a .500 club (31-31-4-6) and scored on average 3.01 goals a game. Out east Red Deer was just under .500 at 32-34-1-5 and they averaged only 2.83 goals per game. So again, just to be a .500 team next season the 'Birds are going to have to score another 25 to 35 goals more then they did in 2011-12. And with that young defense and an untested goalie, it may have to be more like 35-50 more goals then this past season.

The question is where will that scoring come from? We'd all like to think that we have players on the roster who can greatly increase their offensive output. But remember this past season we had four of the top five scorers returning from the previous year and each one, to a man, saw his offensive numbers go down, in most cases quite dramatically. Hopefully it was a fluke but you can't just pencil in a player to score another 15 to 20 goals just because he's a year older.

So let's take a look at where the scoring could come from and, being conservative, see how it adds up. Lockhart will be the top returning goal scorer and he tallied just 16 in 72 games. The year before he potted 21. That's an average of 18 goals each of the past two seasons. So let's say he's good for 20 next year. Chance Lund netted 15 but we can't be sure he'll be on the roster next season with only three 20 year old spots available. So, for the time being we'll leave him, and for that matter Brendan Rouse, out of the equation and just say we should hopefully get 20 goals out of the other 20 year old spot if that other 20 year old spot is used on a forward. So our total at the moment is 40 goals.

Branden Troock is next on the list of returning goal scorers. He had 14 in an up and down season affected by injuries. I think he's in line for a breakout season but it's still an unknown so I'm conservatively going to put him at 25 goals. Justin Hickman ended up with 12 goals but tailed off over the final couple of months. Still, I think 20 goals isn't out of the realm of possibility in his 18 year old season. That brings the total to 85 goals.

Then you have three players who all saw just half a season with the T-birds: Colin Jacobs, Conner Honey and Seth Swenson. Jacobs missed half the season rehabbing from offseason surgery. He came back and contributed nine goals in 44 games. The previous year, as a 17 year old he had 22 goals in 68 games. So he was on a similar scoring pace. He certainly has the ability to be a 20-25 goal scorer. So let's pencil him in for 25. The 17 year old Honey joined the team just before Christmas. It took him a while to get going but eventually he contributed ten goals in 46 games, but he was streaky in that department. Still, by sure grit he should get you 20 goals next season. Swenson arrived in Seattle via a trade mid-January from Portland, banging in ten goals in 34 games. Again, we're being conservative here so I'll put Swenson down for 20 in 2012-13. Our total is now at 150.

What can we expect from Tyler Alos as a 19 year old? He's never scored more than eight goals in a season and that was three years ago. His last two years have seen just 9 goals combined from him. I don't think it would be fair to expect a big jump next year. He's not that type of player. He's a grinder, a hard worker and a strong penalty killer who can occasionally chip in on offense. What about Conner Sanvido? He registered eight goals this past season but was also in the coach's doghouse at times. He was even suspended from the team for a week. Will he even be back next year? I think a 19 year old Sanvido could be a 10-15 goal player but there's no certainty he makes it out of training camp. If Sanvido is here he and Alos together may get you 20 goals. That puts us at 170.

The same thing that was said about Sanvido, outside of the "being in the coach's doghouse", could be said about Elliot and Jacob Doty. Both work hard but will either player return next season as a 19 year old? If he does come back, will Elliot be a d-man or a forward? Combined they only contributed four goals so even if they are back, they won't be relied on for offense. Not knowing their status I won't venture a guess.

Meanwhile the group of defensemen who are slotted to return next year combined to give you ten goals in 2011-12, led by the four of Theodore. I think Theo, by himself could contribute at least ten in 2012-13 but again, for the purpose of this exercise we are being fairly conservative so I'm just going to pencil in 25 from which ever players constitute our defensive group. Our total is now 195 goals.

Remember I said just to be a .500 team the T-birds probably need to average, at a minimum, three goals a game. That would be 216 for a 72 game season. We're sitting at 195 with our returning players, give or take 5-10 goals.

Somewhere Russ Farwell needs to find another goal scorer. A player who can light the lamp about 20-25 times. It could come in the form of an import player. That could be the "cheapest" option. It could possibly come by way of a trade, although when you are building a young team, as Seattle is, I don't know if you want to trade away the type of assets it would take to get a scorer of that magnitude. You're probably talking about a 19 year old that you would only have for one season. That's a big risk to take just to be a .500 team. Is it a risk worth taking?

A year ago at this time we were wondering about the status of a young first round draft pick with tremendous offensive upside who had missed his entire 16 year old season because of health issues. That player, Troock, eventually made it onto the ice for the 'Birds. Now, here we are a year later and we are again wondering about a young first round draft pick with tremendous offensive upside; Ryan Gropp.

Gropp, the sixth overall pick in round one of last year's WHL Bantam Draft, has still yet to commit to the T-birds. He and any other rookie that would join the team next season, be it a Michal Holub, a Daniel Wray or a John Edwardh, is an unknown commodity. But Gropp in particular could be a 10-15 goal contributor even as a first year player. I think getting Gropp into the fold has to be priority number one, priority number two and priority number three this offseason.

Even after a third straight year of non-playoff hockey I continue to be optimistic about this team. I think there is enough talent on this roster to be a postseason team next year. Some changes are necessary and who knows what players might be recruited this offseason, and show up at camp in August, that will become big cogs in this team going forward, but a good many of the right pieces are already in place.

I'll be keeping an eye on the WHL playoffs as they get underway. I think Portland has the most skill of any playoff roster but that doesn't always equal championship. Tri-City will be tough to beat at home, Edmonton is the hottest team going into the playoffs and I really like Moose Jaws group of defensemen.

I'm excited to see what the Thunderbirds do with that number one overall pick in the bantam draft as well as their other picks in the top 25 selections and, as always, I'm looking forward to next season!

That Took Some Balls!

On Monday, I half jokingly told a friend the Thunderbirds were gonna win the WHL Draft Lottery and with it win the rights to the first overall pick in the draft. I just figured this team was due some good luck so why not the Draft Lottery?

It's like when a player or a team is struggling to score (we know all about that). The puck seems to bounce left when you need it to bounce right or a shot at a gaping open net clangs off the post. Your team is trying hard and throwing everything at the net but nothing is going in. So what you need, to break the dam, is that bit of luck; a fluke. You need a puck to take an awkward deflection off the glass and carom behind an unsuspecting goalie and into the back of the goal. Or a shot to ricochet off a defenseman's skate and in.

Well, that's exactly what the T-birds just got. And maybe that fortunate tumble of a ping pong ball is what turns this franchise's fortunes around. Now, I don't know who the Thunderbirds will use that pick on. It may be to early for even them to know. If you read some of the blogs and scouting reports out there, names like Barzal, Soy, Musil and Harkins seem to be getting a lot of play.

Don't forget, the T-birds also have the 20th pick of the first round (obtained from Portland in the Marcel Noebels deal) and the 25th overall selection (their own second round pick). We'll find out when the WHL Bantam Draft unfolds May 3rd in Calgary, but next year or in the years beyond, when this Thunderbirds put three seasons of non-playoff hockey behind them, we may look back on March 21st, 2012 and a ping pong ball with a Seattle logo on it as the turning point.

By the way, do you think Scott Lowe had a hand in getting that T-bird ball to come out first at the draft lottery? Lowe, a long time Thunderbirds off-ice official, passed away Tuesday night after a long battle with ALS. Apparently Scott's first act in hockey heaven was to give his favorite team a little good luck. Thanks Scott!

Please send your thoughts and prayers to Scott's family.